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European Markets to Be Volatile Amid the Massive Uneasiness

European markets will continue to be volatile, following suit of the mixed dynamics seen by the stock exchanges globally. But then, Europe’s markets have recently been much more moderately downbeat than the rest of the world’s markets.
For the EU markets, a key driver fuelling the uneasiness and insecurity is the US-China trade war outlook and how China’s economy’s prospects might be affected. As China’s industrial profits decreased after nine months of the current year, traders expect the country to face more economic challenges that might be triggered by the still unresolved US-China trade conflict. Though the People’s Bank of China has pledged policy support to the national economy that will be offered should the country be hurt by the challenges, investors understand that this would only allow the country’s to keep its economic performances at their current level.
Financial scouts note that investors are waiting for the S&P’s decision regarding Italy’s credit rating amid its budget standoff with Brussels. The country’s long-term credit rating by S&P has so far remained untouched at ‘BBB’. But now investors expect that Italy’s credit rating outlook might be downgraded to ‘negative’.
Yet another source of uncertainty is the global oil markets with its unstable prices showing mixed trade. What attracted the traders’ interest was that Iran’s top government officials say that the country’s oil exports will not fall below 1 million barrels per day on the looming new US sanctions.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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European Markets To Lag Behind the Rest of the Markets Globally On Unresolved EU Issues

In the nearest term, Europe’s markets are likely to be rather downbeat versus key global markets. The European indices might show negative dynamics after the previous period of their modest growth despite the mainly pessimistic environment.
As for the American and Asian investors, they are substantially optimistic mainly due to the robust financial figures reported by the major US companies. Furthermore, traders are now expecting that the US-China trade war might finally be resolved, as the US President Donald Trump said a “great deal” with China was around the corner.
Meanwhile, the European markets are more apt to be driven by the EU news with investors watching things like what will happen next regarding Brexit. Financial scouts say that even though no deal has been reached yet, some progress seems to be seen. The good news is that the British bank stocks’ performance might be bolstered by the fact that the UK banks will be able to operate soundly in the EU after Brexit happens.
On the negative side, Europe’s markets, together with any of the markets globally, will face pressures from the falling oil prices. Once there has been no reason to expect a possible oil supply shortage due to the Iranian oil exports cut on the back of the US sanctions, the oil prices were headed dramatically south, since traders are now confident that Libya and Saudi Arabia can supply enough oil to keep the market satiated. Thus, there are no fears anymore that the market might run short of oil.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Financial Scouts Say Europe’s Traders Will Continue To Follow News About The US-China Trade Conflict, Brexit
Europe’s stock markets will continue to face some pressure due to the US-China standoff resolution uncertainty. EU traders will also keep track of the Brexit news and global oil market developments.
Trade differences between the US and China will remain the focus of interest for European investors. The news regarding the trade spat are quite contradictory, with the markets propelled upwards and downwards interchangeably every time a fresh piece of trade war news appears. However, some progress has been seen here, so traders are awaiting positive updates on this arena.
Brexit news looks similarly ambiguous. London and Brussels have little time ahead to agree, which fuels traders’ concerns, as they apprehend that a ‘hard’ Brexit will happen. Meanwhile, some headway has been seen here, too. Specifically, concessions have reportedly been secured from Brussels to keep the whole of the UK in a customs union in the wake of Britain’s withdrawal.
Another market experiencing a quite high volatility is the oil market, with the volatility driver being Washington’s new anti-Iran sanctions that came into force on November 5. Traders originally expected that new sanctions might drive oil supply shortage in the global market due to the apprehended Iranian oil exports cut. But in light of waivers given to some countries the oil undersupply seems unlikely to happen.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Europe Worries About Oil and Waits for the U.S. Federal Reserve System to Decide on the Rates

European stock markets are feeling optimistic after the results of the U.S. midterm Congressional elections were announced. However, some uncertainties remain due to the Brexit terms and ambiguous trends in the global oil prices.
In the course of the U.S. midterm Congressional elections Democrats won the House of Representatives, but Republicans still control the Senate. The U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with certain difficulties in implementing his initiatives, especially the trade ones. Thus, there is reason to hope that he will not be able to bring up new restrictions, particularly, ones affecting the importing of the European goods.
Financial scouts are certain that the global investors will direct their attention to the December meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, at which it can decide on increasing the rate. Forecasts expect it to be raised to 2.25-2.5%. Investors also await news of the Brexit terms.
Uncertainties of the global oil market are a cause for unrest in Europe as well. New U.S. sanctions against Iran introduced on November 5, stipulate some countries to be temporarily exempt. Italy and Greece made it to the list of those exceptions in Europe.
However, the list turned out to be quite a complicated matter for the European investors. For example, Spain has been purchasing Iranian oil as well, but it failed to be included, while Italy was.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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EU Markets Cheered by the Draft Brexit Deal, But Investors Are Wary About Italy’s Economic Challenges
Europe’s markets are likely to be headed south as the US-China trade relationship has been stubbornly dominated by uncertainty, and also due to Italy’s economy quandary and overwhelmingly pessimistic oil market sentiment.
On the plus side, the European markets will be bolstered by the news that the EU divorce deal has been eventually reached. Despite the array of pessimistic forecasts, London and Brussels have successfully struck the Brexit withdrawal deal on all items discussed including the most touchy and contentious ones.

As far as the US-China trade spat is concerned, there has not been a hint of certainty about how and when it will be resolved. Still, investors are hopeful that the two opposing countries will get back to the negotiation table soon.
Meanwhile, Italy’s budget deficit has remained the front-burner concern for Europe, as Italy refuses to revise its draft budget for the next year including the country’s GDP growth rates and the budget deficit figures. Amid the budget turmoil, the Italian treasuries and government bonds yields are growing at an accelerated pace, which might trigger a full-blown debt crisis, as yet today, Italy is Europe’s second largest debtor after Greece.
In the French market, investors were upset by the US President Donald Trump’s bashing concerning France’s high wine import taxes curbing US wine sales in the country.

Financial scouts say that the markets are anxious globally. Oil prices change their direction every time fresh news appears, but in the medium run, traders fear that the oil supply may be excessive.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Europe’s Markets Anxiously Waiting for the Brexit News and Italy’s Budget Developments

European investors are waiting hopefully for further progress in the US-China trade dispute to happen after some positive developments have occurred along this avenue. On the negative side, markets will continue to face pressures due to Brexit uncertainties and Italy’s next-year’s budget issues that have still not been fully resolved, financial scouts note.
Meanwhile, investors keep hoping that US won’t slap new tariffs on the Chinese imports. China says it doesn’t want to fight a trade war with the United States, while the US pledges Washington “will not change course” on trade policy “until China changes its ways.”
European traders are also anxious to know what new Brexit moves are actually to be made now that London and Brussels have worked out a draft divorce deal, as the UK prepares to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. After the draft deal has been pulled off, it needs the approval of UK MPs and each EU member state. And if it has not been approved before the Brexit day, ‘hard’ Brexit might be brought about with negative outcomes to possibly hurt the UK and the remaining EU members.
Yet another source of concern for investors is Italy’s 2019 budget turmoil with European Commission’s report on Italy's debt to be issued on upcoming Wednesday, November 21. Traders are wary that disciplinary procedure might be brought against Italy, if the country’s draft budget challenges its tax and budget commitments to the EU.
In France, the “yellow vest” protests against fuel price rises still continue. And though President Emmanuel Macron says he “hears the anger”, he seems to be set to keep taxing fuel.

Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Europe’s Markets to Remain Volatile as Investors Wait for the Italy Budget Impasse to be Resolved

Europe’s stock markets are awaiting the outcome of the Italy budget crisis. Most likely, we’ll have some certainty about what really happens in early December. Investors are somewhat worried about the situation, with market prices going both ways.
The Eurogroup is scheduled to meet on December 3 and will most likely discuss the issues faced. Italy’s government are hopeful that there will have a constructive dialogue with European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker. Still, investors fear that Italy may be disciplined with EDP measures to be imposed against it.
Meanwhile, traders never stopped watching the US-China trade war developments, with a U.S. government report appeared that accuses Beijing of stepping up efforts to steal technology via network hacks.
Also, investors are awaiting the outcomes of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at G20 Argentina 2018 summit in December. If traders understand that trade risks still remain high after the summit, they might reasonably have reason to doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again as planned in its next meeting. So far, the Fed predicts the fourth hike before the year ends, likely coming in December.
Global oil markets are dominated by uncertainty, too, with the oil prices plummeting and then soaring again. Investors are awaiting the OPEC+ meeting in early December with the oil production cut likely to be endorsed to bolster prices. In the medium term, traders are wary that the oil market supply might be too high.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

[Libertex]

Europe’s Markets to Remain under Pressure, As Investors Await the G20 Summit and OPEC+ Meeting Outcomes

Europe’s investors’ eyes are on the G20 summit to be held from November 30 to December 1 in Argentina. Investors expect that some new arrangements might be worked out by the US and China that would hopefully help to break the trade impasse. The positive expectations are driven by the US President Donald Trump’s saying earlier that he intends to discuss the situation with the Chinese leader on the sidelines.

Another main focus for European traders is Brexit terms that remain a front-burner concern even though key agreements seem to have been reached between Brussels and London. Meanwhile, new setbacks might still occur. Previously, the sticking point had been a rift over Gibraltar, as Spain had contested the disputed territory’s status and threatened to veto the Brexit withdrawal agreement. But eventually the UK and Spain have struck a Brexit deal over Gibraltar.

On the positive side, the European indices might be underpinned by the euro weakening versus the US dollar, as investors become less attracted to high-risk assets including high-risk forex investments and now tend to prefer buying robust currencies like US dollar.

And on the negative front, oil prices continue to face pressures even though some OPEC members, primarily Saudi Arabia, have been sending out signals that the decision to curb oil production might be taken in the OPEC+ key meetings to be held in Vienna from December 5 to December 7.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst 

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What is financial scouting?

When referring to the term financial scouting, people mean the searchin for good trading opportunities in the financial market, done both quickly and professionally.
A financial scout or a financial scouting service sets out to find investment opportunities that fully meet a trader's needs, this being their primary task. Such investment opportunities may be both high- and low risk.
Want to know what is the difference between financial scouting and investment advisory? - Visit https://libertex.com/blog/what-financial-scouting

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In Europe, All Eyes Are On the G20 Summit
European traders will keep close track of the G20 summit. They wait for potential important statements to be made regarding the global economic outlook, and for agreements to be reached to address the US-China trade war.
On the downside, investors are wary now that the US leader has promised to unleash tariffs on European car imports, so Europe’s carmakers feel downbeat.
Meanwhile, on the positive side, traders’ worries about possible fourth rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve were somewhat soothed. The Fed’s chairman Jerome H. Powell made a market-invigorating statement saying that the US economic outlook remains strong, but the Fed might consider a pause in its interest rate hikes next year to assess the impact of its credit tightening. Mr. Powell said the benchmark interest rate was “just below” the neutral level.
Financial scouts note that the two continuing main concerns for Europe are Brexit divorce conditions and the Italy budget standoff. According to new official figures, withdrawal from the European Union under the government’s plans could cut the UK’s GDP by up to 3.9% over the next 15 years, but leaving without a deal could deliver a 9.3% hit to GDP over the same period, says the analysis produced by departments across Whitehall.
Oil will be the focus of interest for the European investors as well, as they hope that the oil prices might be bolstered if OPEC+ members decide to cut the supply to curb the current glut in their meetings from December 5 to December 7.

Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

[Libertex]

Which opportunities does financial scouting bring?

When it comes to financial investments, being ahead of the others is a key to success. The drivers influencing the price are constantly changing. This makes it necessary to always monitor both micro and macroeconomics and act fast. As Leo Szilard, a famous scientist, once said, 'In order to succeed it is not necessary to be much cleverer than other people. All you have to do is be one day ahead of them.' This is the best phrase to describe financial scouting, the new service that enables faster trading and gains more profit.

Want to know more about financial scouting? - Visit Libertex.com!

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Marijuana Stocks Falls into the Correction Territory

Major Canadian pot stocks were broadly lower, with some prices currently falling by as much as 5 to 6%. The sector has been into the correction territory after soaring in October on recreational cannabis sales rollout in Canada.

Now we see a big share price reversal versus the peak prices. The Sector’s leaders Canopy Growth Corp and Tilray Inc fell by about 50% versus their 12-month highs. And some other key names in the sector like Aurora Cannabis Inc plummeted even lower.

On the positive side, some good news appeared that, as financial scouts note, might refuel buying in the sector. Specifically, first-ever medical cannabis growing licenses were awarded to private businesses. And some more countries like the UK and Germany might possible make marijuana legal as well.

Another big positive news for the marijuana sector companies was that Canopy Growth and some other major cannabis producers have been on the Bloomberg’s 50 Stocks to Watch in 2019 list.

We can expect that given a lengthy correction after the bursting growth in October Canopy Growth (СGС) stocks may be down by $29-30 within the week, while Tilray might drop to $100-105, and Aurora Cannabis Inc, Aphria Inc. and Cronos Group might hit the lows at $4.5-$5, $6.5-$7, and $8.2-$8.5, respectively.

Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

[Libertex]

Europe’s Investors on the Sidelines, Eyes on Brexit and OPEC+ Meetings

European investors’ are waiting to know the Brexit talks outcome and the OPEC+ potential oil supply cut decision.
The G20 summit has yielded good news it brought a temporary truce between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreeing that China will not impose new tariffs on the U.S. car imports and so boosting Europe’s carmakers’ stocks.
Meanwhile, European traders are waiting for the Brexit situation to be finally resolved, with some doubts persisting over if the deal will be reached, with no-deal divorce still a real possibility.
After the G20 summit, all eyes are on the upcoming OPEC+ meetings over December 5-December 7, with the decision to cut the oil supply to hopefully be taken by the organization’s members to curb the oversupply that, as traders fear, might hamper the global oil demand for the next year.
The bad news was Qatar’s announcement of its quitting OPEC as part of the country’s long-term strategy for growing its international energy market presence with a focus on gas. Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to extend the OPEC+ oil pact into next year. So now investors have to sit and wait for some certainty about the oil supply levels.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

[Libertex]

Europe’s Markets Will Be under Pressure as Traders Await Brexit Deal Decision and Italy’s Draft Budget Revision

For the time being, European investors await the outcome of the UK cabinet meeting to be held soon to see if the draft deal is approved. Meanwhile the UK Parliament continues its debate on the deal ahead of the December 11 vote. If the deal is rejected by the British MPs, the UK will have to leave the EU without a deal, which will hurt the country’s economy badly. So far, the deal is criticized both by the ruling party and opposition.
Traders are anticipating next steps European Commission is bound to make to expand euro use to limit the dominance of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Eurocommission believes that stronger euro will help boost the global financial system’s stability. The euro expansion proposals from Brussels will be considered at the EU leaders’ summit later this month.
Another thing that keeps all eyes on it is Italy’s budget, with the country to submit the new draft budget for 2019 to the European Commission that has rejected the previous draft. Italy’s government is currently contemplates the budget deficit reduction from 2.4% of national GDP as was previously proposed.
Yet another concern is France, with investors waiting for the fuel tax increase to be suspended amid increasingly violent “yellow vest” protests, with France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s reputation bitterly undermined after the three-week unrest.
As for the oil sector, financial scouts think that Europe’s investors’ sentiment will be significantly influenced by which way oil prices will go after the OPEC+ meetings where the oil supply cut decision will be taken (or rejected) by the members.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst