Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?

[ofirbeigel]

Hey guys,
I've recently came across an interesting topic called "Wisdom of the crowds". It basically means that a crowd of non experts can collectively reach an answer that is as good as, and sometimes better than what a single expert can produce.
This is a short video explaining this:


So I thought perhaps we can apply this concept to the Bitcoin price and created a little experiment on my website - what will be Bitcoin's price on March 21st 2015 ?

I'd appreciate anyone who would like to join - it only takes 10 seconds to put your prediction in.
Thanks!

[D4ug0]

Yes, possible. I also think a crowd of non experts can make a better prediction than a few experts. I assume that works fine with big numbers. I went to your site and posted my own prediction. I'm curious to see how this experiment will go.

[secco]

Interesting experiment. Please keep us posted about the results.

[knavecoin]

To be frank with you this is not a new idea.

The original crowd wisdom was a little known experiment in #Greece a couple of thousand years ago - the practice is called democracy.

However, I am trying a new method to see how wrong a crowd can be and use mathematical model to predict it.

Try it out for yourself it is based on the Pari-Mutuel. http://poolknave.com/poolknave-pari-mutuel/reserved/ There are projects which can be designed by the users.

[Zapotec]

Two researchers at MIT tried a different approach:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112796/mit-computer-scientists-can-predict-the-price-of-bitcoin