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Bitcoin Garden Forum
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Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?
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Topic: Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ? (Read 1679 times)
ofirbeigel
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Posts: 17
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Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?
«
on:
September 26, 2014, 02:25:50 PM »
Hey guys,
I've recently came across an interesting topic called "Wisdom of the crowds". It basically means that a crowd of non experts can collectively reach an answer that is as good as, and sometimes better than what a single expert can produce.
This is a short video explaining this:
So I thought perhaps we can apply this concept to the Bitcoin price and created a little experiment on my website - what will be
Bitcoin's price on March 21st 2015
?
I'd appreciate anyone who would like to join - it only takes 10 seconds to put your prediction in.
Thanks!
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D4ug0
Full Member
Posts: 211
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Re: Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?
«
Reply #1 on:
September 26, 2014, 04:08:05 PM »
Yes, possible. I also think a crowd of non experts can make a better prediction than a few experts. I assume that works fine with big numbers. I went to your site and posted my own prediction. I'm curious to see how this experiment will go.
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secco
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Re: Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?
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Reply #2 on:
October 03, 2014, 05:05:12 PM »
Interesting experiment. Please keep us posted about the results.
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knavecoin
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Re: Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?
«
Reply #3 on:
October 21, 2014, 11:27:25 PM »
To be frank with you this is not a new idea.
The original crowd wisdom was a little known experiment in #Greece a couple of thousand years ago - the practice is called democracy.
However, I am trying a new method to see how wrong a crowd can be and use mathematical model to predict it.
Try it out for yourself it is based on the Pari-Mutuel.
http://poolknave.com/poolknave-pari-mutuel/reserved/
There are projects which can be designed by the users.
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Get your Knavecoin wallet here
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Play the predictor Poolknave PMP
http://poolknave.com/poolknave-pari-mutuel/reserved/
Make your comments on Reddit:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Gwapex/
Zapotec
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Re: Can we predict Bitcoin price in 2015 using crowd wisdom ?
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Reply #4 on:
October 26, 2014, 11:31:11 AM »
Two researchers at MIT tried a different approach:
http://cointelegraph.com/news/112796/mit-computer-scientists-can-predict-the-price-of-bitcoin
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