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1

Trading / Bitcoin News vs Fundamentals - Bitfinex 4HR Time Interval

« on: February 16, 2015, 04:10:30 AM »

Below you will find our Commentary on Recent Market Developments - Bitfinex | 4HR time interval

Market action on 15.02.15 provided a perfect example of why traders must follow a strict mentality than spend their time chasing tops/bottoms or reading irrelevant news.

Early in the morning, overall marketplace was on a buying frenzy mode and the infamous “to the moon” phrase was used for no apparent reason in most comment sections (blogs, news-feeds, etc).

After a series of unsuccessful attempts to sustain higher prices, market started correcting.

Suddenly the same sources blamed the reversal on news relating to three BTC exchanges being hacked and another three being attacked.

Unfortunately, the majority of the crypto community once more failed to realize that all this action was not news related.

In fact no serious trader builds a technique based on news other than pure fundamentals.

Market momentum was overextended for almost two days. Average 16 hour closing price at the highs was $257 with an estimated technical upper target set to $259. RSI was overbought for 28 hours, forming an protracted double top. MACD signal was wide, it normalized and finally reversed downwards. Moreover, Stochastic maintained a negative divergence along with every attempt for higher prices.

Chart is provided in Full HD. Please click to view it properly.



Read More: http://www.cryptoalerts.net/16-02-15-bitcoin-commentary/

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2

Trading / Weekly Preview Report - 11.11.14 - Price Below Technical Resistance

« on: November 11, 2014, 12:35:14 AM »

Below you will find our Weekly Preview Report. It serves as a follow-up on the previous report we posted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=852989.0

Price at Bitstamp Below Technical Resistance (issued on 10.11.14)

On the long side: The Upper 20MA BB at $377 serves as technical resistance. Price needs to overcome this level with good volume. A confirmed break above this point may increase the possibilities for reaching temporary resistance at approximately $391. If price manages to pierce through the latter with conviction, then the $410 upper target could be visited.

On the short side: The latest breakout from the $359-363 area serves as a temporary support. It is estimated that a breach below this level may possibly increase negative momentum, leading price to visit the $347 near term support or below.

Chart is provided in Full HD. Please click to view it properly.



Overall: All our model indicators have been aligned upwards, supporting the recent rally. This is quite healthy and may possibly support price to move even further. Only the Stochastic reveals signs of temporary exhaustion, but this is not yet worrisome, as the rally has been a bit quick, especially during the last two days. A good signal of continuation would be for the latter to remain elevated above the 80.00 area. Finally, any possible negative divergences shall be noted and not ignored.

Possible Scenarios:

Long Price Setup: On a confirmed break above $377 - Price Target $391
Neutral Price Range: $363-$377
Short Price Setup: On a confirmed break below $363 - Price Target $348

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3

Trading / BTC First Target Reached - Position Open For Possible 2nd Leg Down to $324

« on: October 30, 2014, 12:35:13 AM »

Hi everyone! Very intense price action since yesterday night. Below you will find our weekly report (published on 27.10.14)

Price on Bitstamp above the lower 200MA BB support | Daily time interval

On the long side: For the past four days, price has been ranging between approximately $347 and $358. In this small range, $358 has been acting as near term resistance (pink line). A confirmed break above at least $359 will increase the possibilities of price reaching the 20MA resistance area at $374 – $377 (yellow line). If by that time momentum improves, then it may assist prices to break above $377 and possibly test the upper 20MA BB resistance area at $404-$406.

On the short side: Price weakness has been evident. Important support has been identified around $339. This is actually the area, where on the 8th of October, the 5MA crossed the lower 100MA BB to the upside and produced the rally to $417. If price manages to break below the current range ($347-$358), then it is quite possible that $339 will be tested. Our models estimate that this support must not break. If it does so, it will dramatically increase the possibilities of reaching the lower 200MA BB support area at $320-$324 or further below.

Image is provided in Full HD. Please click to view properly.



Overall: Price has entered another sideways action and is still weak. Bollinger bands are very wide, except from the 20MA BB’s that have started to contract a bit. RSI is supportive, MACD is still in negative momentum territory and Stochastic is trying to enter the support zone <20.

Possible Scenarios:

Long:
First Target: On a confirmed break above $358 – Price Target $377
Second Target: On a confirmed break above $377 – Price Target $406

Neutral: Price Range $347-$358

Short:
First Target: On a confirmed break below $347 – Price Target $339
Second Target: On a confirmed break below $339 – Price Target $324





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4

Trading / Another Symmetrical Triangle | Bitstamp - 1HR

« on: October 22, 2014, 02:15:39 AM »

Price on Bitstamp has been consolidating | 1hr time interval

For the past 36 hours, price on Bitstamp has been moving on a very narrow range, with an approximate average price value of $386.

Furthermore, since the top on the 14th of October, up to today, price has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. This is usually a sign of bullish continuation. Therefore, a closer look is required.

On the long side: Price must move out of the compressing $385-$388 zone that is between the 100MA support and 200MA resistance. If it finally decides to break to the upside, then $389 must be taken out with conviction. However, it must then pierce through the first resistance target, which is the 100MA Upper BB at $394.45. A break above this level will increase the odds for revisiting the 200MA Upper BB resistance at $405.

On the short side: A break below $381 will possibly lead price to test the 100MA Lower BB at $377. This is the first lower target and if it doesn’t hold, price may try to test the 200MA Lower BB at $372 or even lower.

Image in Full HD. Please click to view.



Overall: Price has been stagnant. RSI has been offering positive support. MACD is on positive momentum, although, the recent bearish cross must fail in order to support a rally. Bollinger bands are compressing. Volume is decreasing, as it should before any breakout.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $389 – Max Price Target $405 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range $382-$388 | Probability: 34%
Short: On a strong break below $381 – Lower Price Target $372 | Probability: 27%

Our Stance: Waiting for a breakout to either direction.





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5

Trading / Do Fractals Repeat? A Bitcoin Weekly Preview | Bitstamp Btce Huobi OKCoin Kraken

« on: October 20, 2014, 03:34:28 AM »

Price on Bitstamp above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Since a small correction on the 16th of October, price has been supported my both the Middle 100MA and 200MA Bollinger Bands.

After a short breakout rally on the 18th of October, price has been compressed between the $385-$392 area.

For this weekly preview, two fractals have been identified, that show similarities and may hint how price action may play out.


Fractal A [290914-031014] : Approximately 83 Bars/Candles before a significant price movement.

1. RSI failed nearly 13hrs before the 5MA confirmed a bearish cross on the 20MA. Since then it continued declining sharply along with price.
2. MACD confirmed a bearish signal roughly 2hrs before price started declining and entered negative momentum territory.
3. Both the 200MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands started compressing, with the 200MA (Middle BB) acting as strong resistance (Pink line).
4. Both the 100MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands started compressing, with the 100MA (Middle BB) acting as strong resistance (White line).
5. The 20MA acted as short term resistance and guided prices lower (Yellow line).


Fractal B [161014-Today] : Approximately 77 Bars/Candles. Waiting for any significant price movement.

1. RSI has failed twice on the 69 level, almost 13hrs before the 5MA confirmed a bearish cross on the 20MA. Since then it has not reversed and price has shown no signs of clear direction.
2. MACD confirmed a bearish signal 2hrs before price started compressing. It has not yet entered the negative momentum territory.
3. Both the 200MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands have compressed, with the 200MA (Middle BB) acting as strong support (Pink line).
4. Both the 100MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands have compressed, with the 100MA (Middle BB) acting as strong support (White line).
5. Since the 5MA bearish cross on the 20MA, the latter has been acting as short term resistance (Yellow line).


On the long side: At the time of writing, a significant difference has been identified between the two fractals. That is the support offered by both the Middle 100MA and 200MA BBs. This support has been tested and proven strong. Hence, as long as both hold, the bullish case will remain healthy. A strong break above the Upper 100MA BB at $398 will increase the odds of propelling price up to $410 and possibly further.

On the short side: There has to be a combination of weaknesses across the board in order for any meaningful decline to begin. First, MACD must enter the negative momentum territory. Moreover, the 20MA shall continue to act as resistance. Furthermore, price must breach both the Middle 100MA and 200MA BBs to the downside. Both aforementioned BBs are very close to each other at $385, hence, this point is the one that has to be initially broken. A strong break below this point will probably lead price to test support at the Lower 100MA BB at $373. If the latter is broken too then odds will increase significantly to test the Lower 200MA BB support at $354.

Image in Full HD - Please Click to View Properly


Overall: Price has been consolidating. Bollinger bands are compressing. Support must stay intact.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $398 – Price Target $410+ | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range $385-$392 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below $384 – Price Target $354 | Probability: 25%

Our Stance: Maintaining a long exposure, a bit conservative though.


Price on Btc-e above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $392 – Price Target $403+ | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range $380-$387 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below $378 – Price Target $353 | Probability: 25%


Price on OK Coin above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above ₯2436 ($397) – Price Target ₯2501 ($408) | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range ₯2353 ($384) – ₯2419 ($394) | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below ₯2346 ($383) – Price Target ₯2192 ($357) | Probability: 25%


Price on Huobi above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above ₯2434 ($397) – Price Target ₯2497 ($407) | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range ₯2355 ($384) – ₯2411 ($393) | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below ₯2345 ($382) – Price Target ₯2194 ($358) | Probability: 25%


Price on Kraken above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities: (very narrow price targets due to narrow range)

Long: On a strong break above €311 ($396) – Price Target €318+ ($405+) | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range €302 ($384) – €310 ($394) | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below €299 ($380) – Price Target €284 ($361) | Probability: 25%





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6

Trading / Descending Triangle in the Making Bitstamp BTC/USD 1HR - Lower Target $347

« on: October 18, 2014, 04:26:34 AM »

Hi everyone! Below is our latest update: *Image in HD - Please click to view full size -




Since the 16th of October, price has been constantly making lower highs and lower lows.

In the afternoon of the same day, It has been evident that the formation had established itself as a Descending Triangle, by testing the same low area $371 over and over again, which also happens to be the Lower 100MA BB support.

This price action has been accompanied by a flat RSI, collapsing buying volume and a weakening MACD (at the time of writing). Moreover, stochastic has reversed sharply.

On the long side: RSI must show signs of strength in order to assist upward price movement. On a strong brake above the Upper 20MA BB the bullish case will stay intact, and the odds will increase for a retest of the Upper 200MA BB currently at $410.

On the short side: A strong break below $371 will possibly accelerate selling pressure to test the lower 200MA BB at $347.

Overall: The weakening picture previously mentioned is still vivid. With such a low buying volume, some action has to give soon.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong brake above $385  – Price Target $410 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range $372-$384 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a brake below $371 - Price Target $347 | Probability: 35%

Our Stance: Have reduced long exposure. Will reduce more if $371 is broken with conviction.




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7

Investing & Make Money Discussion / Descending Triangle in the Making Bitstamp BTC/USD 1HR - Lower Target $347

« on: October 18, 2014, 04:26:34 AM »

Hi everyone! Below is our latest update: *Image in HD - Please click to view full size -




Since the 16th of October, price has been constantly making lower highs and lower lows.

In the afternoon of the same day, It has been evident that the formation had established itself as a Descending Triangle, by testing the same low area $371 over and over again, which also happens to be the Lower 100day BB support.

This price action has been accompanied by a flat RSI, collapsing buying volume and a weakening MACD (at the time of writing). Moreover, stochastic has reversed sharply.

On the long side: RSI must show signs of strength in order to assist upward price movement. On a strong brake above the Upper 20day BB the bullish case will stay intact, and the odds will increase for a retest of the Upper 200day BB currently at $410.

On the short side: A strong break below $371 will possibly accelerate selling pressure to test the lower 200day BB at $347.

Overall: The weakening picture previously mentioned is still vivid. With such a low buying volume, some action has to give soon.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong brake above $385  – Price Target $410 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range $372-$384 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a brake below $371 - Price Target $347 | Probability: 35%

Our Stance: Have reduced long exposure. Will reduce more if $371 is broken with conviction.




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8

Crypto Products & Services / Cryptoalerts.net | Bitcoin & Litecoin Alerts - Professional Technical Analysis

« on: October 15, 2014, 10:09:43 PM »

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On a 24/7 basis, data is recorded from a wide range of time intervals (e.g. 5min, 15min, 30 min, etc) and collected into advanced logical models that calculate statistical probabilities about the next reasonable outcomes.

Market price is always the common denominator, hence, our system provides estimates in the form of percentages for three possible scenarios, Long - Neutral - Short.

With Cryptoalerts.net you access Clear, Compact and Comprehensive reports that assist "Your Judgment".

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