CryptoNews of the Week Since 8 April, bitcoin's price has been falling, attempting to break through the support level around $61,500. The weekly decline in BTC is the largest in the last eight months, and in dollar terms, it's the largest since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. Following bitcoin, other digital assets have also plummeted, with many major altcoins losing about a third of their value.
Analysts at CryptoQuant believe this crash is necessary to reset unrealized trader profits to zero typically a signal of a market bottom in bullish markets. However, Willy Woo, analyst and co-founder of venture firm CMCC Crest, warns that if bitcoin's price falls below the short-term holders' support level at $58,900, the market risks entering a bear phase.
Woo also noted that the market structure has not changed since March, but April is "variable in both directions." The halving will be another catalyst for volatility. He suggested that the current bearish sentiments are a good bullish sign and that the next major level for liquidating short positions will be between $71,000 and $75,000.
According to Woo, "the longer digital gold consolidates around the ATH, the more coins transition from one investor to another, strengthening their price and creating massive long-term support." Given the bitcoin demand and supply charts, it is only a matter of time before "the ongoing accumulation during this consolidation pushes us beyond the historical maximum," believes the CMCC Crest co-founder.
RektCapital, a well-known trader, emphasized that before the halving, the bitcoin price always retreated. He considers this a normal trend. "There's no reason for panic as such a drop has occurred in all cycles. Don't think that this time is different," the expert stressed.
James Van Straten, an analyst at CryptoSlate, has noted that he studied the situation surrounding long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) bitcoin holders. In his view, the growth in LTH metrics caused pressure from sellers who disposed of 700,000 BTC coins over four months, not counting GBTC Grayscale stock sellers. The researcher noted that the trend began to change in recent days as short-term holders (STH) actively started purchasing the digital asset, already beginning to outweigh the sellers' pressure.
Several specialists believe the bitcoin price drop on 13-13 April was exacerbated by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and an Iranian attack on Israel. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, speculated that bitcoin could reach a new historical maximum if the conflict in this region subsides. He urged world leaders to take control of the situation to prevent exacerbating the fall in prices of all financial assets, including cryptocurrency.
Michael Saylor, President of MicroStrategy, forecasts bitcoin's price rise despite geopolitical tensions. Saylor succinctly stated that "chaos will benefit bitcoin." His logic is sound since cryptocurrency was created in response to the economic crisis that began in 2008. Consequently, many investors might view bitcoin as an alternative capital preservation medium during upheavals. (It is worth noting that with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, MicroStrategy is the largest public company holder of bitcoins. Naturally, Saylor is directly interested in the price increase of this asset).
OpenAI's artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, believes that if the crisis between Israel and Iran intensifies, the main cryptocurrency's price will only slightly drop to about $60,000. However, this will be a short-term reaction. More significantly, assets like stocks will suffer. Bitcoin is likely to quickly regain its position. ChatGPT considers it likely that following the initial fall, there will be a bullish rally as investors seek a safe haven. Thanks to this, "digital gold" will jump to $75,000, setting a new historical maximum.
Should the escalation of conflict in the Middle East become protracted and lead to a series of smaller conflicts, the volatility range of bitcoin, according to ChatGPT, will expand following an initial drop to $55,000, there could be a rapid rise to $80,000.
It is noteworthy that BTC/USD fall coincided with a notable strengthening of the American dollar. This is linked not only to the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions but also to the market's postponed expectations regarding the start date for easing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Following the publication of US inflation data on 10 April, market participants concluded that the first interest rate cut would not occur in June but in September. The Dollar Index (DXY) surged, reaching a peak of 106.30. Naturally, the strengthening of one asset in the currency pair caused the weakening of the other.
Miners are preparing for the "hunt" for the first epic satoshi post-halving on 20 April. The miner who secures this satoshi could earn a substantial amount as the estimated value of this "collectible" digital coin could be several million dollars. Approximately two years ago, Casey Rodarmor, creator of the Ordinals protocol on the bitcoin blockchain, developed a rarity classification system for individual sats. With the launch of "inscriptions," it became possible to number and sell bitcoin fractions similarly to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Rodarmor's scale ranges from the first in each block "unusual" satoshi to the "mythic" - the very first in blockchain history. An "epic" sat, mined in the first block after each halving, holds one of the highest rarity ratings. Collectors might value such an asset at even $50 million. (Remember, a satoshi is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin (0.00000001), and with the current BTC price of $65,000, the price of a regular, non-collectible sat is merely $0.00065).
Arkham Intelligence has revealed the cryptocurrency balances of various countries. According to its data, the United States is the largest bitcoin whale among governments, currently holding 212,847 BTC valued at approximately $14.9 billion. Since the start of 2023, the US government has added at least 5,000 BTC to its wallets. Additionally, the country possesses reserves of ETH, USDC, USDT, DAI, and other assets totalling about $200 million. The United Kingdom ranks second with a balance of 61,245 BTC worth $4.5 billion, followed by Germany with 49,858 BTC valued at $3.5 billion. El Salvador, where bitcoin has been a legal payment method since 2021, significantly lags behind other jurisdictions, with only 5,717 BTC worth $405 million stored in government wallets.
Notably, China, which ranks second according to another firm - Bitcointreasuries, with 190,000 BTC, is absent from the Arkham Intelligence ranking.
Nearly one in five voters in the US owns crypto assets, making this investor class a significant factor influencing the outcome of the 2024 presidential race, as per a report from blockchain company Galaxy Digital. "As we approach November 2024, investors are increasingly aware of the implications of the elections for the markets. The crypto industry here may play a more significant role than ever," stated the Galaxy Digital report. The company highlighted that crypto investors are primarily concerned about the government's approach to industry regulation.
According to data from experts at Paradigm, 19% of US voters own crypto assets, with 11 million people having crypto portfolios exceeding $1,000. Furthermore, the Paradigm study revealed that 48% of digital asset holders in the US would vote for Donald Trump, while only 39% would prefer Joe Biden.
According to Arkham, the five largest identified crypto whales collectively own digital assets worth about $3.5 billion. However, two of them, Rain Lohmus of Estonia's LHV Bank and former Ripple CTO Stefan Thomas, cannot access their assets due to lost passwords to their crypto wallets. Lohmus reported losing the key to a wallet containing 250,000 ETH earned during a 2014 ICO, now valued at $765 million. Although the founder of the Estonian bank has made no effort to regain access to the funds, he recently expressed willingness to consider proposals from experts who could help him recover his lost wealth. Stefan Thomas received 7,002 BTC in 2011 as payment for a tutorial video he created. But a few months later, he lost access to the funds after forgetting the password to his IronKey hard drive that stored his private keys. In October 2023, cryptocurrency security experts from Unciphered claimed they could bypass IronKey and help Thomas regain access to his bitcoins, now valued at $440 million. However, he declined their offer and enlisted two other teams, which have yet to succeed.
The Norwegian government is determined to end cryptocurrency mining in the country. According to officials, the goal is to cut off undesirable activities associated with mining, an unregulated industry that also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. "We need socially beneficial projects necessary for infrastructure," explained the Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Terje Aasland.
CryptoQuant analysts estimate that bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges will last only a few months. Total available exchange reserves have decreased by more than 800,000 BTC and have reached the lowest value in the history of their two-year observations. As of 16 April, they amount to about 2 million BTC. Assuming the daily inflow of bitcoins into spot BTC-ETFs is about $500 million, which at current prices is equivalent to approximately 8,025 coins, it will take just nine months to completely exhaust these reserves.
Results from the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which shows the ratio of an asset's use to its reserves, indicate: after the halving, bitcoin's S2F coefficient will reach 112 points, nearly twice that of gold (60 points). Thus, by January 2025, bitcoin will become a more scarce commodity than the most popular precious metal.
Several days ago, CEO of 10x Research, Markus Thielen, stated that both the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market are on the brink of upheavals and significant price corrections. Renowned economist and author Robert Kiyosaki confirmed the forecast by ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood and also expects bitcoin's growth to $2.3 million by 2030.
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
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